Employment and the 2020 Election

Here we go again. Time for another national election to choose a new Congress and a new president. The feeling in the air is that this election is more urgent and consequential than our garden variety face-offs, particularly at the presidential level. This choice of president is viewed as fundamentally determinative of the direction of the country and with starker contrast than most such contests. Or so both Republicans and Democrats claim. Great attention is being paid to this election and hopefully significant participation will be realized, which together should lead to a substantive and declarative outcome — like it or not. 

Typically, “It’s the economy, stupid!”. This time the sense is, “It’s the culture, stupid!”. Without getting into the developmental concerns related to our civilization’s maturation or lack thereof, economic claims, projections, and promises will likely continue to drive much of the partisan discussion. 

Are we Americans going to orient ourselves toward the past in an attempt to retain economic successes driven by tried-and-true practices previously delivered by legacy-styled business operatives or are we instead going to innovate and design for a paradigm-shifting economic future characterized by increasing competition, transformation, and multiculturalism? The decision we make will have consequences for the vitality of the economy going forward and for the quality of the employment it will spawn. 

Conventional wisdom states that if the economy is sufficiently robust, then vigorous employment will take care of itself. Indeed, high employment levels are intrinsic to a strong economy. Widespread employment matters. So, it is worth examining the economic approaches both parties are offering to see who is most prepared to fashion a jobs-rich environment over the next four years. Here is my broad summary of the selection before us. 

Donald Trump has shown us his economic priorities through past performance, which included low unemployment rates. Given that Republicans did not present a party platform this year we have to assume they are thinking ‘steady as she goes’. 

The Trump administration’s economic focus has been on individual and corporate tax cuts, deregulation targeted primarily to the energy and financial sectors, trade protectionism, immigration restriction, and rejection of a federal role in providing universal healthcare. In recent months there have also been attempts to resurrect the economy from the devastation of the Covid-19 pandemic by promoting a reopening or ‘get back to normal’ agenda. 

Joe Biden, despite pressure from the Democratic Party’s left flank, is not proposing sweeping or revolutionary changes to the economy, but does advance ambitious federal interventions, nevertheless. Principally, he is centered on reinvigorating America’s middle class by encouraging greater inclusivity across lines of race and levels of education with less income inequality and a reclamation of optimism born of opportunity. 

He wants to expand Obamacare, impose a more progressive tax code, eliminate middle class student debt, raise the federal minimum wage, encourage low-carbon manufacturing, combat climate change, and much more. Biden/Harris also have a 7-point detailed plan to defeat Covid and plan for future such threats. 

Both the incumbent and the challenger want full employment. Which ideology is likely to produce this universally desired outcome? Excluding all other factors which will influence who gets my vote, I see the following as salient with regards to employment. 

The past 150 years have generated great economic advancements resulting in profound improvements in the lives of many millions, both as consumers and as producers. We have learned a lot about how to engender wealth and to provide life enhancing products and services. There are lessons from the past worth carrying on. 

But the past is gone. What we must look forward to is the future with all its uncertainty and ambiguity. Meeting this challenge requires a mindset that sees more opportunity than threat from the future. I think it is this frame of mind that impresses me more than candidate tactics and positions. Durable, but resilient employment will best come from an outlook that sees the world as it really is and that enthusiastically leans into the contest. 

The Challenge of Working Class Employment

The recent presidential election has put the demands and anger of the working class front and center in America’s attention. The economic and cultural influences brought on by encroaching globalization and automation are changing employment — and by extension many people’s lives, in ways that are deeply unsettling and unpredictable. 

The short-term fix appears to be an electorate choosing a new president who has a penchant for, shall we say, over-promising what he can do about the situation. If these promises are combined with under-delivering in the creation of jobs for this cohort over the next few years, then we will likely be playing out another struggle for what, if anything, the government can do about employment during the 2020 election. 

I hesitate to look to the professional class for solutions to the employment and lifestyle anxiety being felt by the working class. Ultimately, this more economically disadvantaged group needs leadership to help them assess and adapt to the new world order that is increasingly being driven by globalization and automation. 

Neither political party is adequately providing the needed tough love leadership and straight talk to the working class. We hear plenty about nostalgia for the good old days or that the real problem was due to hoarding by the rich, but when has anyone acknowledged that world markets are moving toward knowledge-based economies that call for fundamental changes in the way workers plan for employment? Unfortunately, we never hear it. 

We are witnessing large-scale worker displacement. I for one do not see an end in sight. So, when contemplating the best course of action for those who have chosen to curtail their education at the high school level and work in traditional industries it is difficult to see a quick and easy fix. 

To say everyone should go to college is over-simplistic. To say we should reverse the march of time is unrealistic. This country has a serious problem on its hands and if nothing else the presidential election of 2016 has given us substance for a serious debate about where we go from here. 

One thing is clear — employment will continue to go to those with skills and expertise that are marketable. Increasingly, these jobs will be technical and specialized and require considerable education and training. However, not everyone is going to be driven to be a maven in some area. It still should be okay that some people just want a half-way decent job with reasonable compensation and not be looking to set the world on fire with their careers. The question becomes how should an individual with limited education and a strong desire to work in a traditional or straightforward job plan for their future? 

I was recently drawn to the November 2016 New Hampshire Economic Conditions issue published by the state’s Employment Security department’s Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau. Their feature story looks at both “Specialized” and “Baseline” skills most in demand in New Hampshire’s labor markets as derived from an analysis of online job postings. What struck me when reading this report is that it is a window, albeit a small one, into a way of measuring what employers want, in other words what is marketable. And given the context of this piece it is the baseline skills I’m most interested in, since as the qualifier suggests these are skills that do not require a lot of education. 

The most frequently listed baseline skills were communication, writing, multi-tasking, time management, detail orientation, planning, and being organized. Nothing too earth- shattering here. These are the kinds of things someone can do that are desired in the workplace and do not require sophisticated preparation. Perhaps, identifying the basic old-school abilities is where the working class should look to begin or restore their marketability in an uncertain world. 

Let us keep this conversation going. The people showed they are willing to overlook a lot of things in a new president in order to be heard. So, what should they be hearing?